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Doofus1
07-22-2009, 04:13 PM
Well, Corzine can't be happy that the non-partisan Office of Legislative Services announced that next year's state budget is already $8 Billion in the hole.

What's stunning is that projected aid to schools, i.e., money to Abbotts Districts, will increase by $500 million from this year and pension contributions will increase by $700 million. These was included in the original report and then omitted form subsequent reports (interesting in and of itself). Taxes can't be raised enough to cover just those increases, let alone the other gaping holes in the budget. What is going to happen to this state?

http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-14/1248231914151030.xml&coll=1



Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie yesterday said Gov. Jon Corzine should quit his re-election bid in "shame" after a new nonpartisan report showed the state faces an $8 billion structural deficit for the next fiscal year. . . .

He gave us a whole song and dance about how he was responsibly managing New Jersey's budget," Christie said. "All he did was take Barack Obama's stimulus money, continue to spend as he spent for the four years he's been there and leave the problem for the next administration. The only good news for him is that he won't be there to deal with it."

Corzine spokesman Sean Darcy brushed aside Christie's comments.

"This is laughable coming from someone that has proudly talked about how he has no answers as a campaign strategy," Darcy said. "Christie's various proposals would blow a hole in the state budget and his refusal to accept $2 billion in federal funding for education would create a $2 billion increase in property taxes for New Jersey residents."

The shortfall was detailed by the Office of Legislative Services, the Legislature's nonpartisan research arm. It was requested by Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. (R-Union), who called the potential deficit "the largest in history."

OLS calculated a $8 billion shortfall by counting all mandatory increases in state funding and assuming all programs currently in the budget would be included next year. It also reported the Unemployment Trust Fund deficit could top $2.2 billion.

But David Rosen, OLS' chief budget official, wrote "given the nature of this speculative inquiry, our conclusion is one with which reasonable people can disagree."

A May OLS analysis also showed state revenues were projected to remain at or below 2006 levels for the next few budget years as a result of the bad economy, while the cost of pension obligations and education aid would rise.

And Rosen said the tax increases and other budget changes Corzine has billed as one-time fixes this year will make the future deficit even wider if they aren't renewed.

Two weeks ago, another OLS memo became political fodder. It said New Jersey could have missed out on nearly $5 billion in federal stimulus funding if the state declined to take money with conditions attached by the federal government.

5Reasons
07-23-2009, 08:01 PM
Dear Public Workers,

You should NOT overlook this great thread started by D. D is saying that if this holds up (and it is likely to) that the public sector will be facing massive layoffs. Of course you can always hope that you aren't the one or you can do what's smart: STAY AHEAD OF THE CURVE. Folks now is the time to get back into school, update your resume, strengthen your network and keep an agile eye on the market. Don't wait until the last minute or hope that you will only be furloughed for 30 days. The State is facing near bankruptsy. And folks, listen to Obama's OWN finance dude. He predicts that unemployment will still be 9.5% by the END OF NEXT YEAR. Only in 2011 will unemployment dip to JUST BELOW 9%. In other words, we are still facing several years of tough markets. You are going to have to be tougher.

STAY AHEAD OF THE CURVE, folks. Stay ahead of the curve.

brotherderek
07-23-2009, 08:44 PM
some of us will be forced to move,some kids not going to college ,even if they do?I just can't see the light,where does it end.

Miss Tam-Tam
07-23-2009, 09:44 PM
Thanks, Doofus and Five. You have done a good public service. Public employees must pay attention. New Jersey is in serious trouble. Anyone who monitors the national news knows that New Jersey is one of the states about to go off the financial cliff. Quite naturally, Corzine would not be the one to go straight up with this. He is, after all, running for re-election.

John Bury is an actuary whose speciality is pensions. Never heard of him, right? He actually writes a blog for nj.com, but it is kept virtually "buried." Why? Because what he writes is absolutely terrifying. People need to know this truth. As Five wrote, it is far better to be pro-active then to have calamity crash down upon you.

In this blog entry, Bury addresses his concerns to state/public employees about the state of the pension system. Those of you in the pension system owe it to yourself to read it.

http://blog.nj.com/njv_johnbury/2009/07/covering_asses_not_assets.html

brotherderek
07-23-2009, 10:08 PM
This total unfunded liability of $130 billion is more than four times the state's 2008 fiscal year budget, and represents a shortfall of around $44,000 for every household in the state. It's fair to conclude that sooner or later, someone -- almost certainly the taxpayer -- will be forced to shoulder this staggering fiscal burden. So why worry when taxpayers will have to pay...I repeat ,plan to move..The rain is coming ,build your ark ,not new ark.Unless your have a pension and deep pockets..New jersey might well be the garden state for real.

Doofus1
07-23-2009, 10:35 PM
A state with a budget of $2 billion budget, no income tax, no sales tax, great schools, functioning infrastructure and a high quality of life in 1975 has been transformed into a multi-billion dollar beggar state. Can we get the money back from that bum Kraemer that holds us up every few years for a pay day? We're going to need it.

brotherderek
07-23-2009, 10:55 PM
it is all going ,Only know we are getting their fast...I also read about state of our health benefits and the unfunded liability ..Where we going from here doofus?

JoefromPGH
07-24-2009, 03:00 AM
Instead of massive layoffs, is there anyone bold enough to take that pension liability and say enough is enough? Freeze the pension obligations and begin 401K's for all public employees! Pensions are a thing of the past, for obvious reasons.

Doofus1
07-24-2009, 07:54 AM
Instead of massive layoffs, is there anyone bold enough to take that pension liability and say enough is enough? Freeze the pension obligations and begin 401K's for all public employees! Pensions are a thing of the past, for obvious reasons.

No, there is no one bold enough in Trenton at present.

IMHO, first, you have to immediately begin to have a second tier here. All new employees must be forced into a new system that is more contribution based. A system that only requires 10 years of contributions for lifetime benefits and setting those benefits not based on anything other than your last salary is designed to fail. Such a change will slow down the deficit, but not stop it.

Second, bargaining with the unions must mean just that, bargaining. No longer can the state just say yes to everything.

Third, the state must eliminate part-time elected and appointed officials being entitled to health and pension benefits for free. That is an outrageous waste of taxpayer dollars. Overall it is not a huge number, but if public employees have to take it on the chin, so should public servants.

Fourth, Abbotts must truly die. The days of constant increases in school costs to feed the bureaucracy are over. Without such funding, school boards will face smaller budgets and be forced to make the painful decisions. of course, they will first cut sports programs and other stuff to intentionally hurt our kids, but eventually, they will have no choice but to cut the real fat.

Finally, and this is the one that will hurt the most, the state must make reduce pay to state workers and layoff tens of thousands. Use the savings to pay down the pension deficits. Public employees cannot have it both ways--fantastic pensions and lots of jobs. It has become an either or.

Make Newark Clean
07-24-2009, 10:19 AM
Instead of massive layoffs, is there anyone bold enough to take that pension liability and say enough is enough? Freeze the pension obligations and begin 401K's for all public employees! Pensions are a thing of the past, for obvious reasons.

Catfood retirement. Look, the state absolutely needs to rein in cost, but 401ks have been deflated along with the financial sector (http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/yourmoney/chi-ym-marksjarvis-0517may17,0,2529773.column). In fact, many were expected to fall far short of the income people needed to retire (http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/445992/book_review_the_great_401k_hoax.html?cat=38)even before the Great Recession. Although it's not necessarily an issue for the state, many mainstream firms are reducing or eliminating their matching contributions (http://www.accountingweb.com/item/107796).

Affordable, sustainable retirement will need to undergo a revision in the same vein as provision of healthcare to get a handle on the cost. I don't know when or even how that will happen, but 401k's as they are currently constituted are headed for a crisis themselves.

Can You Afford to Retire?
Frontline, PBS (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/retirement/)


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Doofus1
07-24-2009, 10:25 AM
In fact, many were expected to fall far short of the income people needed to retire even before the Great Recession.

The fact is people live longer and are going to have to work longer. Nothing we can do about that. But 401ks with a match should be more than enough for people that work until they are 65 or 70 when you consider social security. Pensions remain an option but they cannot be golden pensions where you contribute for 10, retire after 20 and live another 40. The math does not work.

Make Newark Clean
07-24-2009, 10:55 AM
The fact is people live longer and are going to have to work longer. Nothing we can do about that.

Good place to start fixing it. Now, if we can only make sure there are enough jobs to do for the oldtimers who hang around even while the young pups try to get to the first rung on the employment ladder. Every action has its reaction.

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